TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Houston Rockets win the 2024 NBA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,056 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes0c10,609$40 inLost-$39.8434246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes10c2,853$297 inLost-$297.261,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c545.04$13 inLost-$131,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c519$80 inLost-$8018536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Yes14c509$71 inLost-$71.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes35c284.43$100 inLost-$10015940.3%64 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes10c198.62$21 inLost-$20.72326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c182.02$24 inLost-$23.6623438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes18c150.06$27 inLost-$27.1788335.3%312 W · 571 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes12c114$14 inLost-$13.68825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes33c93.12$31 inLost-$30.6586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9c…0669backed Yes25c57.63$14 inLost-$14.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No76c38.05$29 inWon+$9.2124549%120 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.