Movies · resolved market
Will 'Rule Breakers' gross between 3-6m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49bec0dc12ae154d4936b09cd2ddf3ac242a0733376d3a2a0d489c95f0facdca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad16…e610backed Yes | 0c | 61,342$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 2,800$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,149$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 12c | 849.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 27c | 659.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 34c | 635.1$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 9c | 478.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 364.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 284.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 278.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 11c | 276.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 71c | 269.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 10c | 257.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 16c | 121.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 35c | 111.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 73c | 89.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross between 3-6m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross between 6-9m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross less than 3m on its opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.