Movies · resolved market
Will 'Rule Breakers' gross less than 3m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedfdca3112aa6d750c184a5938602e871a50e266660f8943d168db46ca5143fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e3…9d1abacked No | 32c | 103,655$33,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,169.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…6217backed Yes | 68c | 103,655$70,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,169.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 67c | 3,739$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.89 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 36c | 2,809$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.16 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 67c | 2,044$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 43c | 1,646$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 79c | 1,161$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.29 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 31c | 674.49$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 29c | 624.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…1d2dbacked Yes | 67c | 587.25$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 63c | 520.17$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 25c | 500.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 75c | 390.66$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 72c | 381.88$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 78c | 345.16$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked No | 39c | 202.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 15c | 194.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 184.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 29c | 168.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 70c | 150.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 74c | 140.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 23c | 132.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 131.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 118.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 66c | 118.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…50babacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 74c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 30c | 82.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…0cadbacked No | 25c | 59.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 72c | 50.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 50.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…6c87backed No | 28c | 50.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89be…c2abbacked No | 32c | 49.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 32c | 40.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 60c | 38.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…1482backed Yes | 71c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 60c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…b7aabacked Yes | 70c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…0a70backed Yes | 67c | 23.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…0aeabacked Yes | 76c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a51…3ba1backed Yes | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…b6f8backed Yes | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross less than 3m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross between 3-6m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross between 6-9m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Rule Breakers' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.