Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d0168c4d00b82d99cef1a93b64806a63b6a1c0a127b0593d26e08990723df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64c4…1018backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 49c | 2,064$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.33 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…dc24backed Under | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.7 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 50c | 1,831$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.26 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Under | 50c | 1,550$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.44 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 37c | 933.9$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.79 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 50c | 326.17$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 55c | 245.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…63f4backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 450 | 42.2%190 W · 260 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Under | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 181.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…f560backed Over | 80c | 125.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…4079backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…6842backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked Under | 38c | 53.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 49c | 37.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 102 | 31.4%32 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 46c | 26.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Invictus Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Invictus Gaming won
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)Weibo Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group NirvanaInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.