Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68116ba3587ff703788d9884fcbf83d5dca0bd4853dd0f8ed1c01174ab7ab82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e7…ac8ebacked Over | 46c | 1,048$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.86 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Over | 53c | 1,041$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.32 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Over | 57c | 758.48$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.58 | 950 | 48.5%461 W · 489 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 43c | 707.64$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.62 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 54c | 707.1$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.26 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…e35abacked Under | 49c | 623.87$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.87 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 361.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 386 | 40.4%156 W · 230 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 59c | 275.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 42c | 249.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…6842backed Under | 46c | 217.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 46c | 215.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4b…e93dbacked Under | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd186…ed6ebacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Over | 9c | 162.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…db66backed Over | 59c | 150.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 53c | 113.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…fc6cbacked Over | 53c | 94.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…f6eabacked Over | 55c | 91.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…63f4backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 450 | 42.2%190 W · 260 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacd…4d5abacked Over | 59c | 67.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6343backed Under | 34c | 55.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…1cf3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed Over | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 50c | 31.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 102 | 31.4%32 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…abd8backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…4414backed Over | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Under | 47c | 22.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…1b3abacked Over | 59c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Invictus Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Invictus Gaming won
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)Weibo Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group NirvanaInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.