Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49da1ec38f05623f0707028440a29f654a69d3c61b75ca92f2ebaa39c9fe1925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 947.05$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 578.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 548$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 295.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 23c | 274.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 260.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 224.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 170.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 168.29$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 115.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 105.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 97.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 25c | 87.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 77.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 70.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 50.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 48.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 33.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 73c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 78c | 28.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 77c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 77c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.