Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f9a60e7cc8d96aa74b5358e957763133af9a4774c91c5997fd54ebcdc3bee73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 2,204$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.74 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 45c | 856.17$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 749.97$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 418$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 33c | 411.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 376.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 356.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 336$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 224.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 208.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 176$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 167.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 161$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 160.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 158.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 152$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 139.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 137.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 133.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 65c | 129.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 123.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 53c | 123.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 53c | 93.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 74.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 29c | 70.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 65.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 36c | 62.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 37c | 60.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 57.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 55.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 28c | 52.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 48.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 45.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 44c | 44.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 52c | 40.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 40.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 61c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 39.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 50c | 36.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 35c | 36.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 41c | 33.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 31.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 28.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 57c | 28.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 27.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 66c | 27.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.