Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64b8b20a0314443c25e17bd1a64d1c91530ad6a4a73330764dd44e8b73deebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 42c | 598.1$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.06 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 522.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 380.47$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 336.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 21c | 315.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 240$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 224.54$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 217.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 61c | 196.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 185.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 172.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 167.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 164.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 154.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 137$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 38c | 129.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 126.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 94.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 78.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 36c | 65.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 60.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 64c | 59.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 57.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 55c | 55.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 49.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 34c | 48.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 47.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 44.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 47c | 34.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 32.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 69c | 28.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…be81backed No | 66c | 28.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 22.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 52c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 21.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 19.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 57c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.