MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0abeb28b43eee707d03a2f3ac963ef43676d45381bd5618af2292594e0c46d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 17,351$8,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,849.01 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 4,998$2,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.6 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 4,606$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.34 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 4,500$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 3,400$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 2,122$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.62 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 1,687$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.89 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 1,257$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 832.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Detroit Tigers | 19c | 783.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 780$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 764$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 677.43$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.04 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 392.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 131.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 122$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 111.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 94.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 65.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 61.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 35.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 31.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.