MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a3b4091b71709b73e2d0507a6b816cb462f1257bd1fca1c50ccfd0cd3c7d2fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 13,192$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,591.65 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 10,929$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.04 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago White Sox | 24c | 8,767$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.81 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 3,737$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.39 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 2,456$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 2,419$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.32 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 1,969$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.21 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Chicago White Sox | 24c | 1,900$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.76 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 1,702$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.52 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 1,039$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.89 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 902$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.58 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 563.01$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 456.09$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…cb52backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 186.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 176.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…e515backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Chicago White Sox | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 84.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…8807backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 81.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 79.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 55.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.