MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4bc74c8921ece73055fc8a3bd62640feb8070806b3ead4be243fa91973d758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 1,449$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,316$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.75 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 952.83$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.92 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 485.65$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 444$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 275.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 244.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 239.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.51 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 228$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 207.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 162.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 155.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 149$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 132.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 113.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 54.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 32.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 31.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 30.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 22.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…15c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.