TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b5…7e72backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c14,063$8,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,297.2711849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Toronto Blue Jays42c5,952$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.387934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays42c4,909$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,847.284,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c4,601$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.5711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c3,116$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.483,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c2,008$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.865,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c1,999$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.7660350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c1,690$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.192,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c1,145$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.373748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c999.97$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.981,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays43c981.07$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c910.46$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1750153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays35c870.53$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.4412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays42c833.33$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.3313851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Toronto Blue Jays41c676$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.8475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates72c623.19$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.5910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c586.55$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.256851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays64c510.59$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.76,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Toronto Blue Jays42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1961351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays41c471.85$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.391,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays53c385.04$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.682,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays41c368.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.028,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c349.49$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.19,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c260$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c230.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.091,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c190.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4879543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates33c182.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1499624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Toronto Blue Jays34c178.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5731046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c171.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.613,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays67c169.71$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.882,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays41c163$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.172,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…fdebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates39c151.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.253040%12 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays50c148.9$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7247589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xec6d…804bbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.055349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays42c112.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0666448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Toronto Blue Jays42c109.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5470455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays39c104.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.258,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Pittsburgh Pirates39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c79.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Toronto Blue Jays28c69.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3519155.5%106 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Toronto Blue Jays41c66.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.511,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a9…1e17backed Toronto Blue Jays31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c63.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.052,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays78c62$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.781,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb6…4fe4backed Toronto Blue Jays42c58.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.183050%15 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pittsburgh Pirates69c57.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.652,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates42c53.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.222,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Blue Jays48c51.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.871,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3243954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays50c49.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c49.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3894648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Toronto Blue Jays41c49.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.031,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.116345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates44c43.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.15,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c43.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.553,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays50c41.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.826,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays73c41.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.181,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c38.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.675637.5%21 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays50c36.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates39c36.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2854152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a5…2fa8backed Toronto Blue Jays41c36.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5722254.1%120 W · 102 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c36.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.531,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c36.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.312,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed Toronto Blue Jays57c35.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.311855.9%66 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays42c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7246854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays42c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Toronto Blue Jays38c32.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2069447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c31.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.322,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays60c30.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2553261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.734843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays71c27.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.922,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Toronto Blue Jays41c26.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.69543.2%41 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7630…d7fabacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c26.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c22.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.075,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates71c14.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.