MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5782f6dda1a9356b8368e3b329fd4abe9fb4c2315b432b657b96ed1878c054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,771$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.17 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 60c | 1,632$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.56 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 1,626$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 1,107$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.02 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 769.89$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 39c | 744.68$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.72 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 549.41$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.22 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 54c | 531$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.11 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 526.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 433$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.87 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 365.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 54c | 363.07$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 284.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 261$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 54c | 228.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 206.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 54c | 183.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 46c | 164.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 162.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 153.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 133.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 102.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 59c | 89.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 64c | 76.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 53.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 44c | 50.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…f719backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 59c | 37.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 37.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 42c | 33.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Under | 54c | 29.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Over | 47c | 27.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 54c | 22.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 59c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.