MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74aa49603e49ae0578bf87b973dd6e69edf1bc53c584b93f810a67921802c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 46c | 1,947$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.52 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 709.19$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 673.66$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 616.56$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 39c | 499.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 267.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 262$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 54c | 242.91$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 242.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 241.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 58c | 182.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 151.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 128.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 115.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 45c | 110.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 67c | 104.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 59c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 93.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 74.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 67c | 70.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…9b79backed Under | 60c | 65.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 43c | 57.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 45c | 54.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 44.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 56c | 43.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…7564backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 46c | 38.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 50c | 36.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 34.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 57c | 34.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 46c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 57c | 29.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 36c | 28.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 67c | 26.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Under | 52c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.