Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a6039738e84ee2fe5cae74502d09942f7e5c4702e27f8066829d9c15e1d89b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 246.4$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 237.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 231.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed No | 46c | 184.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 54c | 184.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 50c | 151.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 49c | 146.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 74c | 143.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed No | 47c | 135.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked No | 46c | 108.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 54c | 106.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 100.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 48c | 100.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 51c | 98.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 71c | 97.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 52c | 96.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 95.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 39c | 93.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 64c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 31c | 86.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 65c | 84.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 49c | 82.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 65c | 78.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 77.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 75.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 53c | 71.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 62c | 67.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 67.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 63.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 62.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 60.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 57.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 36c | 57.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 54.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 34c | 53.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 52.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 47c | 50.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 40c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 49.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 43.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 49c | 43.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 61c | 42.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 42.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 54c | 41.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 40.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 39.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 50c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 38.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe67…3932backed No | 47c | 35.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 46c | 31.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 31.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 60c | 29.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 60c | 29.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 27.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 52c | 25.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…6c60backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 59c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 74c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.