Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59507bc6e6e45783bc8dcd33b6afdd3b0f0c57583bd17f3ea10837873c46318b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5003…8816backed Yes | 2c | 591.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 394.85$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 289.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 21c | 287.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.34 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 220.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 215$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 29c | 196.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 70c | 191.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 158.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 146.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 34c | 118.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 109.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 51c | 101.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 22c | 99.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 98.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 28c | 97.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 94.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 70c | 92.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 64c | 88.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 87.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 81.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 81.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 78.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 36c | 74.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 67.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 65.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 47c | 64.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 50.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 49.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 34.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 32.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 39c | 32.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 52c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 69c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 66c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 66c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…6741backed No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 75c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.