Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Koki Matsuda vs Makoto Ochi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a638aaf61fd09f5cedbc42d316a7a2a399dbbeef49c45fb91d5f3c0297f43d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Koki Matsudaof Koki Matsuda, Makoto Ochi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Koki Matsuda | 68c | 5,810$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.62 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Makoto Ochi | 35c | 1,229$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.12 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Koki Matsuda | 75c | 1,173$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Makoto Ochi | 25c | 1,111$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.3 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Makoto Ochi | 36c | 984.59$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.66 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Makoto Ochi | 35c | 939.99$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.88 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Makoto Ochi | 18c | 479.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Makoto Ochi | 37c | 428.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Makoto Ochi | 35c | 408.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Makoto Ochi | 26c | 363.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Koki Matsuda | 74c | 360.09$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Makoto Ochi | 20c | 262.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Koki Matsuda | 70c | 254.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Makoto Ochi | 16c | 216$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Koki Matsuda | 71c | 215.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Makoto Ochi | 40c | 211$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Makoto Ochi | 36c | 169.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Makoto Ochi | 36c | 161.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Makoto Ochi | 24c | 152$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Makoto Ochi | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Makoto Ochi | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Makoto Ochi | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf983…39a0backed Makoto Ochi | 26c | 102.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Koki Matsuda | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Makoto Ochi | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 40.1%99 W · 148 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Makoto Ochi | 32c | 93.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Makoto Ochi | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Makoto Ochi | 32c | 90.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Koki Matsuda | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Makoto Ochi | 39c | 89.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Makoto Ochi | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Makoto Ochi | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Koki Matsuda | 73c | 82.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Makoto Ochi | 36c | 81.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Makoto Ochi | 23c | 74.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Koki Matsuda | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Makoto Ochi | 26c | 49.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Makoto Ochi | 25c | 46.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Makoto Ochi | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Makoto Ochi | 36c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Makoto Ochi | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Koki Matsuda | 71c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Koki Matsuda | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…ef15backed Koki Matsuda | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Koki Matsuda | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Koki Matsuda | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Koki Matsuda | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Koki Matsuda | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Koki Matsuda | 76c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Koki Matsuda | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.