TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fuego vs Zeu5 Esports - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zeu5 Esportsof Fuego, Zeu5 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2391…554fbacked Fuego60c3,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9928642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Zeu5 Esports39c1,817$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.872,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Zeu5 Esports63c1,814$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.972,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Zeu5 Esports40c1,746$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.823053.9%124 W · 106 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Fuego56c1,575$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.753545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fuego55c1,504$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.212,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Zeu5 Esports42c1,369$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.883560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Zeu5 Esports43c1,359$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.0615857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Fuego60c1,271$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.5229443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Zeu5 Esports40c1,129$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.840741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Fuego57c1,061$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.7344846.2%207 W · 241 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652b…e9c9backed Zeu5 Esports43c1,032$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.152157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Fuego61c1,011$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.831,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Fuego62c999.96$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.9836155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dee…30b1backed Fuego57c873.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019663.3%124 W · 72 L+17.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0b3…b220backed Zeu5 Esports57c815.75$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5235850.8%182 W · 176 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Fuego56c797.24$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.1925660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…1543backed Fuego6c715.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+287.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Zeu5 Esports40c711$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.620644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed Fuego35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24532337.2%120 W · 203 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x696a…823bbacked Zeu5 Esports37c687.47$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.082766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Zeu5 Esports59c668.93$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.121,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Zeu5 Esports40c619.74$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.7423849.2%117 W · 121 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Fuego57c600.3$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.1735442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…2ad3backed Fuego57c599.98$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.994862.5%30 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed Zeu5 Esports44c588.11$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6111535.7%41 W · 74 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Fuego27c550.12$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.061,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x406d…5298backed Zeu5 Esports39c537.06$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1714363.6%91 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Zeu5 Esports50c526$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.511750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Fuego64c522$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.0835659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a4…6bdbbacked Fuego37c499.17$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4410739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Fuego37c414.74$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.331,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Zeu5 Esports35c400$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.142,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc0…e6f5backed Fuego19c330$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Fuego62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18639251.3%201 W · 191 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1031…2febbacked Zeu5 Esports34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed Fuego65c290$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.94654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fuego38c280.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.41,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed Zeu5 Esports47c261.96$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.965038%19 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Zeu5 Esports43c244.36$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.321,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Zeu5 Esports38c236.56$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8418151.9%94 W · 87 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x640d…bba7backed Zeu5 Esports76c225$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Fuego17c219.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Zeu5 Esports40c216.81$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0933139.9%132 W · 199 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb1…7992backed Fuego60c211$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.62254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Zeu5 Esports57c204.56$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5641469.3%287 W · 127 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x52dd…005dbacked Fuego62c178.84$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.612251.6%63 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Zeu5 Esports41c170.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7352441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Fuego59c170.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.734544.4%20 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf2f…0115backed Fuego56c160$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8935656.2%200 W · 156 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Zeu5 Esports47c154.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.061,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Zeu5 Esports44c152.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.781,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3596…d91cbacked Zeu5 Esports67c143.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.473256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Zeu5 Esports39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.214854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Zeu5 Esports39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2115248.7%74 W · 78 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Zeu5 Esports39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2112351.2%63 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Zeu5 Esports39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.213857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Fuego50c127.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7414240.8%58 W · 84 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Zeu5 Esports39c125.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.416747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Zeu5 Esports60c123.85$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.883941%16 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Zeu5 Esports50c120.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6818165.7%119 W · 62 L+23.7wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9c57…4d10backed Zeu5 Esports43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.281631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed Fuego44c110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.928353%150 W · 133 L+28.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c36…a117backed Fuego65c105.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick57cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Zeu5 Esports44c100.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.151,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Fuego20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Zeu5 Esports38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6216444.5%73 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Fuego25c98.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.696533.8%22 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Zeu5 Esports75c98.76$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6914552.4%76 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ef…647cbacked Zeu5 Esports41c97.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.282665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Fuego61c97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1742851.2%219 W · 209 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbd…c5acbacked Fuego65c96.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.595048%24 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Zeu5 Esports65c86.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3366559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Zeu5 Esports36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3310150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a1…fb15backed Fuego36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed Zeu5 Esports63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.375145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Zeu5 Esports39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9213349.6%66 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fuego68c75.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.685849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Zeu5 Esports35c71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.022,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fuego48c68.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.11,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed Zeu5 Esports38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.798755.2%48 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Zeu5 Esports79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2917650%88 W · 88 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Zeu5 Esports34c62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9233857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Fuego58c61.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.561,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Zeu5 Esports41c59.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Zeu5 Esports38c53.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0120967%140 W · 69 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zeu5 Esports76c52.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.632,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Zeu5 Esports72c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.719344%85 W · 108 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec24…d744backed Zeu5 Esports39c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1114645.2%66 W · 80 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Zeu5 Esports41c50.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7442055%231 W · 189 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Fuego51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.538154.3%207 W · 174 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3329…d4fcbacked Fuego20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011243.8%49 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Zeu5 Esports79c49.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3138555.1%212 W · 173 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Fuego68c45.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0994444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a60…a744backed Fuego45c44.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052945.9%243 W · 286 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Fuego70c43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.891,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Zeu5 Esports41c40.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0463742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc99…e38bbacked Fuego65c39.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.699067.8%61 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6c…b1d2backed Zeu5 Esports40c38.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.363831.6%12 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Zeu5 Esports39c38.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.621844.5%97 W · 121 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.