UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a96184948335f68a9dfa84e7b65d1f1d9194f4ec8a625876d0b6ad85ae7104b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 69c | 2,161$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 52c | 1,873$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.68 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,675$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.74 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…5c3dbacked No | 68c | 1,481$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 39c | 1,080$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.24 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 15c | 978.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.03 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 66c | 925.1$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.57 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 850.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.91 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 584.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.08 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…0965backed Yes | 34c | 312$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…6cf3backed Yes | 34c | 291.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Yes | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Yes | 33c | 142.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 125.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 32c | 115.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 67c | 112.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Yes | 35c | 80.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…9d26backed No | 69c | 38.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…4b45backed No | 70c | 38.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…585dbacked No | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 65c | 28.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…4fbabacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Tresean Gore won
- Will Tresean Gore win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.