Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa5d0c9b2004bed558f35ef22eb5e94e59b5cffadf92bae1414f5048b3fd0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 581.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 273.07$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 236.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 231.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 188.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 9c | 187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 155.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 133.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 128.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 11c | 125.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 15c | 111.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 40c | 106.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 18c | 90.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 83.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 27c | 73.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 24c | 67.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 67c | 66.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 45c | 65.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 61.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 76c | 54.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 26c | 51.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 50.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 50.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 47.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 35.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 75c | 35.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 35.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 71c | 32.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 50c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 29.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 66c | 26.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 72c | 23.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 21.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 20.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 17.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 17.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 72c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed No | 68c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 14.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.