Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac3fa42eceef12790d347603d2d5821b209d22cd36a2147776f3b36eacb2687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 515.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.46 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 68c | 424.44$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 282.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 31c | 172.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.63 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 135.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 121$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 119.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 106$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 58c | 99.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 98.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 89.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 78.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 69c | 75.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 71.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 70.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 68.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 63.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 55.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 52.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 45.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…a6aebacked Yes | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 63c | 37.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 42c | 32.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 30.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 28.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 22.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 20.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 15.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 66c | 15.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.