Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Sinner vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4adb434b9e510362df04151428d6876f6c99f782259aade7e9a787e209847b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Draper | 15c | 13,740$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Draper | 5c | 9,621$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.59 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Draper | 12c | 6,273$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.71 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Draper | 7c | 5,566$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Draper | 7c | 4,450$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Draper | 25c | 3,366$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Draper | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked Draper | 12c | 2,832$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Draper | 15c | 2,074$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…4f78backed Draper | 17c | 1,661$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…b48dbacked Draper | 16c | 1,624$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…ab83backed Draper | 11c | 1,596$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Draper | 14c | 1,350$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…50fabacked Draper | 3c | 1,053$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Draper | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Draper | 10c | 964.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Draper | 15c | 890.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Draper | 13c | 794.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Draper | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Draper | 12c | 591.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Draper | 15c | 535.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…e7bdbacked Draper | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…56f8backed Draper | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Draper | 10c | 429.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Draper | 3c | 400.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Draper | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Draper | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Draper | 19c | 333$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Draper | 6c | 322.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…4f23backed Draper | 15c | 306.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Draper | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Draper | 11c | 285$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Draper | 18c | 283.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Draper | 14c | 273.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Draper | 15c | 241.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Sinner | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Draper | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…1a05backed Draper | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…d6f8backed Draper | 17c | 179$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Draper | 13c | 164.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…1193backed Draper | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed Draper | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11aa…ad15backed Draper | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.