Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ade03c320cb88816d9e54f6ae7101c9a5fadd307b9359239e48b16ccbce5376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 929.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 22c | 594.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 459.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 386.2$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 72c | 355.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 22c | 349.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 295.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 293.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 286.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 26c | 279.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 258.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 256.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 237.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 208.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 37c | 204.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 183.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 10c | 168.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 152.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 20c | 131.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 12c | 129.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 124.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 10c | 112.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…49c5backed Yes | 50c | 112.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…e6f7backed No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 79c | 87.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 78.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 33c | 78.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 21c | 75.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 71.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 17c | 64.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 79c | 58.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…30eebacked Yes | 32c | 57.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…501ebacked Yes | 26c | 56.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 24c | 56.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 51.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 22c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 49.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 79c | 46.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 45.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 24c | 43.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 39.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 38.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 34.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 79c | 31.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 77c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…4f23backed No | 61c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 65c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 80c | 18.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.