Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a162a432f168b43723ab29f5e3cc15db18b61c6d60eac3e3db65fdd92e1398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 524.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 78c | 502.4$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 470.87$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 59c | 457.91$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 10c | 432.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 71c | 355.78$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 350.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 23c | 316.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 78c | 295.25$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 67c | 289.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 261.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 223.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 215.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 214.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 24c | 210.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 191.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 185.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 48c | 167.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 47c | 161.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 154.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 14c | 153.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 152.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 55c | 150.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 53c | 149.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 59c | 143.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 56c | 140.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 140.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 34c | 136.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 130.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 33c | 128.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 122.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked No | 39c | 121.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 12c | 120.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…b59bbacked Yes | 66c | 116.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 109.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 107.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 71c | 105.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…d3f6backed No | 70c | 104.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 60c | 104.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 103.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 70c | 102.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 101.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 62c | 95.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 84.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 71c | 79.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 78.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 78.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked Yes | 35c | 77.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 74.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ee…5ba7backed No | 32c | 72.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb08…6a78backed Yes | 34c | 72.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 60c | 71.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 64c | 71.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 70.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 44c | 64.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 63.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 59.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 67c | 57.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 57.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 57.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 75c | 56.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 55.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 34c | 54.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 53.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…e317backed No | 38c | 52.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 54c | 52.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 35c | 50.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 48.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 56c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 34c | 44.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 43.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 40.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 28c | 39.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 35c | 39.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 34c | 38.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 49c | 38.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 42c | 37.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 35c | 37.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 36.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 34.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 34.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 57c | 33.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.