TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2be6…e054backed No11c524.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0834319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes78c502.4$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No53c470.87$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.792,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes59c457.91$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.563826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked No10c432.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.746445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes71c355.78$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.789747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No43c350.9$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.358,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No23c316.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes78c295.25$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes67c289.34$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2917358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c261.21$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.046,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c223.32$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.797,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes34c215.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.451,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c214.2$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No24c210.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.441,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c191.19$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c185.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.261,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58af…1250backed Yes48c167.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.851926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes47c161.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4430919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c154.26$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.831,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed No14c153.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No50c152.93$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.961,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No55c150.59$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.444339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes53c149.3$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9629459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes59c143.96$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.744452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes56c140.65$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c140.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes34c136.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.137416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes60c130.58$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.751,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes33c128.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.793930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c122.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked No39c121.11$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.892030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed No12c120.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x218e…b59bbacked Yes66c116.65$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes44c109.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5629640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c107.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.261,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c106$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.892,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes71c105.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.824367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0da8…d3f6backed No70c104.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes60c104.04$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes34c103.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes70c102.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8517956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c101.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.712,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2628718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes62c95.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9425037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3218452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No12c88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.563,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No66c84.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0627167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No71c79.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes50c78.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9337644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No29c78.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc450…2eaabacked Yes35c77.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No77c74.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7111874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ee…5ba7backed No32c72.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.25837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+159.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb08…6a78backed Yes34c72.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes60c71.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No64c71.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7410569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c70.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.639,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c70.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896a…18f3backed Yes44c64.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.04850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes34c63.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes27c59.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes67c57.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9113554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c57.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes29c57.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes75c56.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.858872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes34c55.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.961,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d78…5678backed Yes34c54.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.493834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c53.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes35c53.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.737959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…e317backed No38c52.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes54c52.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes35c50.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8231029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c49.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes40c48.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes56c44.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.657326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…6c10backed Yes34c44.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No78c43.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.169176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes30c43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.17037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes26c40.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.291,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9c…e333backed Yes39c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes28c39.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.943441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked No35c39.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.033923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x809a…0732backed Yes34c38.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.551450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd662…aeb5backed Yes49c38.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.652045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes42c37.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6919160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed No38c37.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes35c37.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes35c37.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.487939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No63c36.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9144147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No58c34.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No70c34.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2653437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No57c33.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2834057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.