Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe27b2de366a5e9d8ddb8609fee194eef916d4acebd46e064f9be0a8a5b7082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 6c | 918.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 660.38$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 19c | 586.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 561.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 10c | 520.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 456.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 398.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 352.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 344.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 280.7$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 261.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 254.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 240.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 236.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 234.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 231.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 223.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 79c | 223.03$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 212.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 195.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 194.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 183.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 25c | 177.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 176.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 30c | 155.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 154.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 139.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 117.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 19c | 109.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 105.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 22c | 105.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed Yes | 12c | 105.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 103.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 74c | 98.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 95.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 93.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 92.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…02ffbacked Yes | 21c | 88.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 32c | 87.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 76c | 87.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 82.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 31c | 78.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 79c | 78.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 77.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 28c | 77.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 72.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 68.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 25c | 66.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb08…6a78backed Yes | 36c | 65.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 63.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 28c | 63.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 62.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 59.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 23c | 59.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 23c | 59.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 23c | 56.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 54.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 54.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 51.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 50.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 23c | 46.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 25c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 65c | 31.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 31.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…609ebacked No | 73c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 75c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…f6a5backed No | 80c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 65c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed No | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked No | 78c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cb04backed No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 70c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked No | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…99bbbacked No | 76c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.