NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4adee0d1d82bea00d677a74bf20194cc5ae6f45809d918c90d74125eb122ebc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,427$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Under | 44c | 1,705$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…c37dbacked Under | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…f1f6backed Over | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.69 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Under | 44c | 1,040$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 53c | 330.19$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 181$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 62c | 94.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 54.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 46.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.