TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,143 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6b5…8447backed Over54c12,043$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,553.29450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf59…7c74backed Under49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…b256backed Over51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c9,604$4,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Under52c4,965$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60014753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c3,852$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.922,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71c…513abacked Over52c3,050$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4643100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over52c1,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Under44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.7519147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over53c938$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6150047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over52c882$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.3644648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over52c869.6$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.72,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over54c711.83$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.441,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Over59c682.51$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.519652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc5…c31fbacked Over49c659.84$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.523046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c640$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.83,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Under54c553.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011155%61 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c485$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.52,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under50c430.8$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.448448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over49c395.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7736248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.251,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211351.3%58 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c185.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Under43c175$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2562351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under47c156$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.321,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Under51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.59048.9%44 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over46c114.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9911445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c112$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.524,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over46c100.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.022,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5147738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5112952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Under51c96.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.224235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Under52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011251.8%58 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084e…5108backed Under51c94.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under45c84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.86839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.863745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over49c69.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3517744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over47c68.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.252,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Under44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…e8a8backed Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Under44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Over59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.518554.1%100 W · 85 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over51c45.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.15942.4%25 W · 34 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Over49c44.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.98760.9%53 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over53c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6833949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under45c35.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9393849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56160.7%37 W · 24 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xed8d…a20dbacked Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Over55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.54351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.58,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Over55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ab…b38dbacked Over55c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.352770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under46c22.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.471,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.837848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.