NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509b74855ab6c41fc348ed8a7d4177f0f0503f8e138c3a845bccaae0db428b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Cavaliers | 53c | 66,252$35,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,316.67 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 60,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Wizards | 50c | 53,371$26,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,685.5 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Wizards | 47c | 40,000$18,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,057.02 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 47c | 21,764$10,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,501.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Wizards | 46c | 18,525$8,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,977.01 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 14,000$7,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,280 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Cavaliers | 54c | 3,710$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.4 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Wizards | 52c | 3,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 50c | 1,656$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.78 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,633$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 46c | 1,557$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 46c | 1,037$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 824$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.28 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…5a9fbacked Wizards | 54c | 750$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Wizards | 50c | 625$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards | 49c | 590$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 47c | 544$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Wizards | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 49c | 500$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Wizards | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Cavaliers | 47c | 454$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Wizards | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Wizards | 53c | 377$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 48c | 348.75$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Cavaliers | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 49c | 308.23$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cavaliers | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 295$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Wizards | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Wizards | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…98e5backed Wizards | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Wizards | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Cavaliers | 50c | 131$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Cavaliers | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Wizards | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Wizards | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…a9d9backed Cavaliers | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Wizards | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Wizards | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Wizards | 46c | 73.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Wizards | 45c | 53.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Cavaliers | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Wizards | 49c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Wizards | 46c | 38.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Wizards | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Wizards | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Wizards | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Wizards | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Wizards | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 48c | 27.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…d77ebacked Wizards | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Cavaliers | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…8f5ebacked Wizards | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.