NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80408f3f8a7b9b22da36ee49ef07a59a43796861523784ea19894077ea9ffe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 21,457$10,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,514 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 19,620$9,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,570.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 53c | 11,321$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.75 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.99 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 51c | 5,659$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.72 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 4,546$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 3,581$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.88 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 3,570$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.33 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 53c | 2,953$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.82 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 1,817$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 48c | 1,693$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.41 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 49c | 1,441$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.18 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 51c | 1,307$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.27 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 55c | 1,105$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.45 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…aa56backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…6471backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Under | 49c | 832.95$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.15 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 820$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 55c | 442.18$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.98 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 17c | 275.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 257.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 157.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 138$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…f554backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.