Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af17de663ed260e86129546cf7150574de2b8f6648a1f304132d2e2db6de33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 1,451$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 1,129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 5c | 690.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 6c | 684.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 521.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 26c | 493.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 37c | 478.41$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 432.03$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 310.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 296.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 9c | 239.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 23c | 235.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 209.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 204.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 185.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 169.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 163.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 44c | 136.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 21c | 127.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…7ddfbacked Yes | 17c | 123.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 120.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 119.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4d…5b1dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 100.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 97.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 91.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 89.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 28c | 85.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 23c | 85.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 83.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 80.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 75.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 74.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 71.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 21c | 70.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 68.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 61.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 58.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed Yes | 44c | 51.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 75c | 44.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 43.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 67c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 37.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 54c | 31.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 61c | 29.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 78c | 24.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 74c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.