TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes13c1,236$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.421,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes14c1,044$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes36c1,028$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.596637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes7c951.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1816543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes2c788.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6610121.8%22 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c606.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.042,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes31c584.21$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.982,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c569.13$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c549.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.081,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes12c493.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes33c476.54$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6610030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No77c412.3$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes4c385.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes5c378.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c365.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No70c364.63$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes6c347.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.083619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes4c330.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7814835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No54c311.75$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14351762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c305.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No78c301.89$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.994,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes13c280.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.543,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes10c230$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1291…275fbacked Yes5c227.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes18c227.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked No46c205.15$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8114034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c197.33$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes17c196.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3210134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c193$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.935,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c190.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.752,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586e…07a6backed Yes5c189.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+1,039.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes64c171.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes54c170.54$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15c0…befdbacked Yes27c168.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes39c157.69$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2625839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No64c155.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4111169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No75c154.2$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7511947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes28c151.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1211724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32af…a7c3backed Yes28c151$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.483842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa691…41f7backed Yes31c149.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.652138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c149.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No60c148.72$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes22c148.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.673745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1f7…87e2backed Yes40c143.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes12c139.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c139.24$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.663,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9006…db4ebacked No77c134.91$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c134.88$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.383,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413b…86c0backed Yes11c130$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes27c119.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9234533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes26c119.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.41,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No69c110.75$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes18c109.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7da3…742ebacked Yes59c107.65$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.657729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.982454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c74…01c3backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes50c99.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5517926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No76c98.72$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7925358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes51c95.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb432…7688backed Yes63c92.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes15c92.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.955024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No45c91.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3516847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes16c91.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0516129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.71,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No38c85.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6317947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes19c85.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1627421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes13c85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes29c83.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c82.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.392,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes28c81.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0772125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes24c81.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.174533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.042236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c72.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.062,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes14c70.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c67.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.472,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes29c64.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No66c60.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2811753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes35c57.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes33c56.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5919947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No53c56.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.721,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e7…4450backed Yes55c54.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No67c53.87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No48c53.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes29c53.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes38c51.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6813242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16fb…ba62backed Yes57c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x220f…1a7cbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes28c49.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0512233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes48c48.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.435729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.976,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No64c43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c42.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.993,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.