Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4afa7b851556272dba55863811b369ed3c23bc53059cc9a0f93d4494a4784e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 40c | 2,000$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.8 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 60c | 1,854$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.62 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 1,046$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 4c | 616.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 4c | 575$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 9c | 374.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 25c | 279.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 230$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 149.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 141.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 136.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 11c | 131.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 31c | 127.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 69c | 110.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 110.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 108$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 35c | 89.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 81.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…c6bbbacked Yes | 15c | 79.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 76.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 17c | 74.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 49.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 41c | 49.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 62c | 47.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 68c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 36.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 68c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.