Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4338cde7129d6ce66e905b3493d37bc2a78a456ae22fe60a3372ba3f488ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 5c | 2,690$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 64c | 1,156$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 27c | 433.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 390.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 387.77$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 341.87$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 301.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 280$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 202.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 196.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 188.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 52c | 180.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 178.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 167.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 158.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 149.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 145.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 141.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 117.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 112.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 110.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 102$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…6a9dbacked Yes | 49c | 101.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 100.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 98.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 96.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 52c | 96.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 89.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 81.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 73.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 27c | 73.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 71.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 48c | 71.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 44c | 69.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 62.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 60.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 65c | 57.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…0b8fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4db…ed01backed Yes | 49c | 49.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 47.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 42c | 47.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 49c | 46.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 32.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 31.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 44c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 22.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 47c | 22.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.