Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b20c350a92f937ef9694758a9af4ab4ba16a5099f665a14dcdbee6f6e266731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,021$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 483.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 19c | 262.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 178.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 149.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 146.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 143.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 138.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 125.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 119.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 16c | 114.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 112.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 29c | 108.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…196dbacked Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 100.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7def…289abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 99.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 98.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 96.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 14c | 95.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 91.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 86.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 82.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 76.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 17c | 73.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 43c | 73.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 22c | 72.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 69.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…d28fbacked No | 80c | 59.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 58.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 79c | 50.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…29d8backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 47.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 43.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 73c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 42c | 40.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0604…882abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…9902backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 79c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.