Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489afbe0befa1f0cec85a016bda563b692d66c9b317f1a5ac13253cabdb0ae89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 642.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 349.94$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 3c | 341.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 79c | 281.41$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 268.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 263.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 252.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 191.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 157.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…278ebacked No | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 146.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 51c | 142.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…c9bfbacked No | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 39c | 128.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 26c | 115.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 65c | 114.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 47c | 109.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 103.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 102.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 51c | 100.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 33c | 100.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…70fcbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…49f2backed Yes | 48c | 85.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 85.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…ac63backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…9656backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 46c | 75.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 75.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 70.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…6d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 69.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 48c | 62.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 55.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 47c | 51.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…29c1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 33c | 48.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…587ebacked No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 39c | 38.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 52c | 33.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…b2a0backed Yes | 30c | 33.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 48c | 32.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 49c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…1132backed Yes | 47c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 54c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 57c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 48c | 25.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 48c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 50c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed No | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.