CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3b8704e9ee3799dd72dd41b0ed3c2fef55f0495bd27b02b242b2497ae4a282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, TheMongolz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Aurora Gaming | 25c | 825.19$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.19 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed TheMongolz | 75c | 750$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked TheMongolz | 79c | 675.18$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.68 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 21c | 482.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.41 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 112.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TheMongolz | 73c | 90.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9178backed TheMongolz | 79c | 86.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…5a50backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed TheMongolz | 73c | 42.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc4…96f5backed TheMongolz | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Aurora Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed TheMongolz | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 62c | 25.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…6096backed TheMongolz | 78c | 21.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed TheMongolz | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.