CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ca852315d7c9e0aca16c4ca93f0f1eeabcfdcca42c4652740de5f3a351dc3af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof TheMongolz, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed TheMongolz | 25c | 9,857$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.28 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…7067backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 6,667$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 4,012$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.8 | 143 | 62.9%90 W · 53 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 3,503$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.68 | 473 | 47.1%223 W · 250 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 2,704$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.23 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 612 | 28.9%177 W · 435 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 1,706$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.35 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed TheMongolz | 30c | 1,651$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 1,328$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.54 | 350 | 43.1%151 W · 199 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed TheMongolz | 29c | 1,002$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 994.76$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.76 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed TheMongolz | 28c | 960.82$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.47 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 733.51$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TheMongolz | 27c | 663.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed TheMongolz | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 630.33$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.4 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed TheMongolz | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 318.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked TheMongolz | 31c | 309.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9178backed TheMongolz | 30c | 207$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked TheMongolz | 30c | 170.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed TheMongolz | 36c | 168.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed TheMongolz | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed TheMongolz | 27c | 159.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed TheMongolz | 29c | 101.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed TheMongolz | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5010…3bdabacked TheMongolz | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked TheMongolz | 27c | 90.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…a69fbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked TheMongolz | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 461 | 42.7%197 W · 264 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 49.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 42.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 33.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 223 | 24.7%55 W · 168 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 446 | 43.5%194 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Aurora Gaming | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 206 | 46.6%96 W · 110 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.