Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b40c5bb9c8964f4f3aab4421e2fa64ba7c937929bd041b9d0b77a9031d91685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Yes | 2c | 993.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 75c | 818.72$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 783.78$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 6c | 774.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 674.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 493.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 490$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 465.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 414.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 260.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 17c | 249.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 16c | 194.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 14c | 188.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 14c | 176.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 167.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 134.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 124.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 72c | 121.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 119.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 13c | 106.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 95.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 290 | 29%84 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 20c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed Yes | 17c | 91.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…90bfbacked Yes | 21c | 65.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…f274backed Yes | 19c | 61.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 55.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 54.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 78c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 211 | 68.7%145 W · 66 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.