Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff2b98854164ed76d58227bf12a3e9fb6598e9d56ebb3a8dd0844766299d703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 1,032$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 3c | 692.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 24c | 548.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 437.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 7c | 432.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 6c | 397.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 367.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 27c | 299.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 263.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 247.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 229.16$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Yes | 5c | 226.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 212.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 207.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 202.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 199.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 195.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 192.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 190.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 17c | 183.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 182.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 15c | 151.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 147.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 146.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 27c | 139.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 137.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 129.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 127.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 100.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 98.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 74c | 83.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 83.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 17c | 81.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 29c | 79.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 78.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 77.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 30c | 77.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 66.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 65.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 39c | 65.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 22c | 60.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 75c | 59.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 56.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 54.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 52.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked Yes | 24c | 51.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 79c | 50.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 72c | 49.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 76c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 24c | 46.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…474fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 27c | 41.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 41.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 71c | 40.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 39.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 77c | 38.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 74c | 32.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 31.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 73c | 29.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 27.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed No | 60c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 72c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 78c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.