Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a7e2ffe495953a1a8725d6be27e7066dab527d2a779b137125bb4fdbff2f58e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 61c | 1,861$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.75 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 1,048$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed No | 3c | 786.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 5c | 667.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 10c | 622.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 57c | 572.64$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 54c | 561.12$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 541.57$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 27c | 537.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 2c | 513.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 426.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 385.96$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 41c | 376.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 54c | 295.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 274.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 8c | 268.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 72c | 253.42$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 252.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 51c | 230.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 56c | 222.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 40c | 217.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 57c | 211.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 202.53$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 6c | 194.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 48c | 165.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 52c | 164$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 49c | 151.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 43c | 150.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 34c | 146.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 47c | 145.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 73c | 143.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 142.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 28c | 135.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 44c | 133.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 38c | 132.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 57c | 126.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 78c | 125.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 124.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 24c | 124.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 124.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…faedbacked Yes | 45c | 114.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 47c | 113.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 43c | 113.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 109.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 107.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 100.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 99.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 25c | 96.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 25c | 94.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 62c | 91.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 86.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 20c | 84.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 58c | 84.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 32c | 82.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 81.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 57c | 78.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…d6b6backed Yes | 30c | 77.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 62c | 76.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…2f12backed Yes | 31c | 72.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 70.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 63.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 77c | 62.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…3a75backed Yes | 22c | 62.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 61.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 61c | 61.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 70c | 60.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 53c | 60.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 59c | 60.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…bf0abacked Yes | 47c | 60.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…9a22backed Yes | 30c | 58.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 57c | 57.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked Yes | 25c | 55.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked Yes | 42c | 55.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 64c | 54.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 52c | 53.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4c89backed Yes | 36c | 52.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 58c | 52.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f9…0ae6backed No | 67c | 51.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 50.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 60c | 49.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 30c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…5447backed Yes | 50c | 47.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 38c | 46.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 46.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 44.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 31c | 42.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 31c | 41.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.