La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b575253cfda9ff1936dc2adafce1f4ad0ef42705928f94a321ba017138323fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,830 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 24c | 2,295$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 16c | 1,249$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 75c | 720$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 26c | 650.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Over | 22c | 507.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 5c | 474$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 17c | 451.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 434.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 1,045 | 47.8%500 W · 545 L | +15.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 16c | 432$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 849 | 39.7%337 W · 512 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 74c | 408$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…bd88backed Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 381$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 25c | 350$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 4c | 342$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 337.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 289.53$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 259.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 232 | 52.6%122 W · 110 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 252.29$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 80c | 246.45$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 425 | 57.9%246 W · 179 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 16c | 142.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 141.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 137.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 445 | 24.3%108 W · 337 L | -49.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…c4f7backed Under | 76c | 123.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Over | 27c | 122.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 73c | 121.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 24c | 65.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…871fbacked Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 75c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 74c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Levante UD won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Levante UD won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.