Earnings · resolved market
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b75c03ddcd720ab3f5ad0271cc24a7b0e1f5c33e01f463f51eabf0d7faef5e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 12c | 2,203$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.03 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 21c | 2,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.99 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 48c | 1,584$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.7 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 22c | 1,444$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.97 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 25c | 1,090$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 11c | 799.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…7edbbacked No | 16c | 658.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…8bc6backed Yes | 71c | 421.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 59cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 17c | 416$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 53c | 414.91$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 26c | 395.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 51c | 394.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 352.74$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 76c | 314.3$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked No | 26c | 207.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed No | 16c | 205.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked No | 29c | 171.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 34c | 131.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…7a37backed No | 14c | 115.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed No | 23c | 106.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed No | 47c | 103.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 12c | 91.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 23c | 88.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Yes | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…61a0backed Yes | 70c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 24c | 81.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 59c | 68.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed No | 17c | 58.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked No | 35c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…9df5backed No | 48c | 36.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 59c | 36.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…8dd7backed Yes | 63c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 63c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.