Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Emma Raducanu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b974301f8a50cc545bd1e3496cce2ff6a5ef1731419d60722bad6cd75b2eeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raducanuof Sawangkaew, Raducanu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Sawangkaew | 15c | 12,710$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Raducanu | 69c | 7,123$4,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.55 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Sawangkaew | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 260 | 45.4%118 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Sawangkaew | 21c | 3,997$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sawangkaew | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raducanu | 79c | 2,808$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.99 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Sawangkaew | 21c | 2,620$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.96 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73d…80e7backed Sawangkaew | 41c | 2,420$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Sawangkaew | 10c | 1,613$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Raducanu | 69c | 1,604$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.94 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sawangkaew | 23c | 1,501$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Raducanu | 78c | 1,410$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.28 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raducanu | 66c | 1,397$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Sawangkaew | 38c | 1,215$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.93 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Sawangkaew | 20c | 1,003$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sawangkaew | 18c | 1,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Raducanu | 58c | 865.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.04 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sawangkaew | 17c | 818.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raducanu | 75c | 757.58$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.05 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Raducanu | 78c | 639.88$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Raducanu | 58c | 518.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.64 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Sawangkaew | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Sawangkaew | 22c | 444.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Sawangkaew | 20c | 395.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Sawangkaew | 21c | 347.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raducanu | 69c | 345.6$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Raducanu | 72c | 316.02$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sawangkaew | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Raducanu | 53c | 282.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Sawangkaew | 19c | 262.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Sawangkaew | 4c | 259$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Sawangkaew | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Sawangkaew | 21c | 249.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Sawangkaew | 51c | 246.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Raducanu | 55c | 244.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Sawangkaew | 22c | 230.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Sawangkaew | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Sawangkaew | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Sawangkaew | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sawangkaew | 18c | 174.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Sawangkaew | 30c | 164.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Sawangkaew | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Sawangkaew | 24c | 146.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Sawangkaew | 22c | 142.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Raducanu | 77c | 137.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Sawangkaew | 21c | 134.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Sawangkaew | 27c | 131.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Raducanu | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Sawangkaew | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Sawangkaew | 21c | 99.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Sawangkaew | 48c | 94.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Raducanu | 60c | 83.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Sawangkaew | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Sawangkaew | 18c | 67.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Sawangkaew | 22c | 63.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…dd62backed Raducanu | 69c | 62.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Sawangkaew | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Raducanu | 52c | 59.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 96 | 69.8%67 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Raducanu | 80c | 50.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Raducanu | 69c | 46.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…c9a6backed Raducanu | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Raducanu | 79c | 32.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Raducanu | 78c | 31.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Raducanu | 79c | 29.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…dc81backed Raducanu | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Sawangkaew | 47c | 24.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Raducanu | 53c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Raducanu | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Raducanu | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Emma Raducanuthis page
- Sawangkaew vs. Raducanu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sawangkaew vs. Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sawangkaew vs RaducanuRaducanu won
- Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Sawangkaew (+1.5)Raducanu won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.