Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4baf965e0ae00221b98d07814d7e480ffdd18eb3d64a6311d315afd1134d2655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 21c | 258.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 169.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 147.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 129.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 31c | 117.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 20c | 109.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 108.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 99.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 35c | 99.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 80c | 83.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 82.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 82.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 76.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 75.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 77c | 73.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 65.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 60.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 34c | 58.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes | 35c | 57.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 55.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 55.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 26c | 54.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 75c | 52.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 50.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 74c | 46.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 46.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 43.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 35c | 43.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 43.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 41.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 34c | 39.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 38.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 66c | 34.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 34c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…3b41backed Yes | 35c | 31.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 26.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 80c | 17.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.