Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae12d3234c7dc5b46e4640c45c3f0e78006c44f12d41df6c6bcb1c4de817167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 592.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 68c | 402.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 350.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 13c | 334.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 283.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 22c | 233.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 185.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 147.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 132.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 125.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 106.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 102.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 99.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 15c | 95.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 77.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 26c | 75.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 51c | 75.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 24c | 74.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 73.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 73.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 66.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 31c | 65.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 18c | 64.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 75c | 63.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 59.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 22c | 56.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 20c | 53.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 44.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 40.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 68c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 47c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 45c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 25.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 25.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 48c | 23.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 62c | 21.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 75c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.