Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404d2ae854829645f5047493ecb859f1da545a0695862be5dc437afc0ebfd4dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 212.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 162.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 159.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 148.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 145.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 67c | 138.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 128.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 125.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 31c | 117.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 108.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 106.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 97.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 83.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 75.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 71.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 71.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 34c | 71.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 69.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…ef91backed Yes | 40c | 64.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 58.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 56.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 56.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 55.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 54.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 52.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 51.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 51.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 41.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 28c | 39.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 74c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 31c | 35.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 73c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 68c | 34.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 37c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 33.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 80c | 29.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 28.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 38c | 26.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…9a8abacked Yes | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 64c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 65c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 72c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.