Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb5d043629566f2aa55e4df543b94886a5eb90289ec82c995d098ec11453162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 1c | 17,852$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,386$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 953.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 27c | 933.82$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.39 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 76c | 703.59$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 27c | 566.92$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 443.03$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 321.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 310.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 274.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 13c | 249.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 65c | 238.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 8c | 213.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 200.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 197.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 29c | 176.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 175$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 166$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 55c | 162.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 139.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 139.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 133.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 127.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 120.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 112.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 10c | 110.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 104.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 78.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 76c | 69.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 51c | 68.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 51.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 44c | 39.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 51c | 29.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 79c | 24.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 66c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.