Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00aad50cae8ba24c64e50a6482143b78d3b873afb7f8cf6b58a2ec845b368a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 451.58$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 357.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 303.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 238.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 219.7$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 200.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 199.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 176.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 51c | 173.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 21c | 155.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 154.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked Yes | 46c | 154.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 146$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 144.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 142.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 138.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 55c | 137.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 10c | 131.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 9c | 129.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 120.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 116.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 44c | 102.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 101.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 95.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 93.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 91.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 89.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 48c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 86.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 86.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 78.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 43c | 75.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 59c | 75.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 57c | 72.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 70.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 66.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 71c | 61.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 57c | 61.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 60.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 59.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 52c | 58.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 53c | 58.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 33c | 52.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 50.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 48.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 45c | 44.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 48c | 42.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 59c | 38.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 36.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 51c | 34.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 34.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 33.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 48c | 33.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 57c | 32.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 57c | 28.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 43c | 27.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 48c | 25.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 48c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…0fe2backed Yes | 45c | 23.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 55c | 22.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 19.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 57c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 16.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.