Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bd385f1ce138a69bcc7ade2f0dd151183b3590196ecda40ed2c92f15c73ecf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 44c | 1,376$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,369$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.39 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 74c | 1,200$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.05 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 44c | 1,178$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.55 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 973.66$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 34c | 785.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.47 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 36c | 517.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 311.76$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 50c | 107$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 50c | 62.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 49c | 54.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Utrecht won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.