Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf5f691a78af4a9a44e04df5e8f224cf2a0d7da210f6f3986be9d91796d9319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Liquid | 68c | 14,433$9,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,647.06 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked OG | 33c | 4,860$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.8 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Team Liquid | 67c | 3,520$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed OG | 31c | 1,601$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.2 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed OG | 32c | 1,580$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Team Liquid | 69c | 1,450$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Liquid | 64c | 1,264$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.36 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed OG | 36c | 1,254$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.66 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed OG | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Team Liquid | 69c | 360.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Liquid | 61c | 294.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Liquid | 67c | 265.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked OG | 33c | 265.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked OG | 31c | 260$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed OG | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed OG | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Team Liquid | 69c | 193.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed OG | 31c | 150.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed OG | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed Team Liquid | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 13c | 86.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…0f68backed OG | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked OG | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Team Liquid | 64c | 46.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 46.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…f184backed OG | 25c | 42.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 77c | 40.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…38ccbacked OG | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Team Liquid | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.